In this year’s prediction and analysis, I have considered political developments that we have witnessed till this moment in arriving at my prediction for each state. Notwithstanding, anyone who feels he/she has better information to change the outlook is free to say so and we will see what impact such can have on the overall result.
The prediction/projection is based on some assumptions and calculations stated below:
1. I have considered each party’s strength and performance of 2015 general election in predicting their 2019 performance. I have actually put up the result of 2015 in this analysis.
2. Average voters turnout in 2015 was about 43% throughout the country. Each state’s voters turnout for 2019 has been projected in line with that of 2015 except in cases where the turnout was lower than 43% national average that I have used the national average figure (43%).
3. 5% of the projected total votes have been allocated to other candidates including Sowore, Moghalu, Oby Ezekwesili, Durotoye, Olawepo Hashim and co. I don’t think they will get more than that combined.
4. No party is projected to score anything close to 90% or 95% in any state as we witnessed in 2015. Most of the factors responsible for that anomaly are no longer in the mix in 2019.
5. Toss-up states aka battleground states have been given to the party I think will eventually win the state but with small margin (not more than 5% win margin).
Note: This prediction/analysis may be updated as we approach the election if there are major developments that can have significant effects on the election.