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“See winner of 2019 Presidential elections!”

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In this year’s prediction and analysis, I have considered political developments that we have witnessed till this moment in arriving at my prediction for each state. Notwithstanding, anyone who feels he/she has better information to change the outlook is free to say so and we will see what impact such can have on the overall result.

The prediction/projection is based on some assumptions and calculations stated below:

1. I have considered each party’s strength and performance of 2015 general election in predicting their 2019 performance. I have actually put up the result of 2015 in this analysis.

2. Average voters turnout in 2015 was about 43% throughout the country. Each state’s voters turnout for 2019 has been projected in line with that of 2015 except in cases where the turnout was lower than 43% national average that I have used the national average figure (43%).

3. 5% of the projected total votes have been allocated to other candidates including Sowore, Moghalu, Oby Ezekwesili, Durotoye, Olawepo Hashim and co. I don’t think they will get more than that combined.

4. No party is projected to score anything close to 90% or 95% in any state as we witnessed in 2015. Most of the factors responsible for that anomaly are no longer in the mix in 2019.

5. Toss-up states aka battleground states have been given to the party I think will eventually win the state but with small margin (not more than 5% win margin).

Note: This prediction/analysis may be updated as we approach the election if there are major developments that can have significant effects on the election.

The North Central Zone
Included in the NC is the FCT (for straight-forward analysis). Many political watchers expect the contest to be keen in this region because of the perculiarity of the zone and some major political development there. Majority of PDP supporters expect their party to win this zone largely because of the herdsmen issue and political alignment in Kwara and Kogi state. Winning NC is a mojor prediction upon which their hope of the presidency lies but unfortunately, elections are not necessarily won on sentiments and emotions. This explains why PDP recently lost the bye-election in Kwara state which is a blow to their calculation. I have predicted PDP to edge a win in Plateau as they did in 2015 and manage a slim win in Benue because of the herdsmen/farmers imbroglio but I believe they will lose FCT and Nassarawa which they managed to win in 2015 largely because APC is now the governemnt at the center and the fact that no major in-road has been made by PDP in those states.

I believe APC will perform better in Kwara than my prediction of 55% win there. Saraki is loathed by majority of Kwarans and he will need a political miracle to survive the Otoge onslaught against him. A sample of what awaits Saraki was served in the last bye-election for the HOR there. I will also expect the APC government to checkmate whatever staunts Saraki and PDP may want to pull (via rigging) by deploying adequate security personnel in that state.

No matter how hardly fough the election is in NC, it will be a big surprise if PDP outperforms APC in the entire NC zone. I predict a 52% win for APC in this zone.

North East Zone
This comprises of Adamawa (Atiku’s state), Gombe, Borno, Bauchi, Taraba and Yobe. Despite being Atiku’s zone, there has been no past occurrences that can make any unbiased analyst predict an Atiku win in this region. Of course, there were incidents of herdsmen in Taraba at some point, but I personally do not see this having significant impact in the overall outcome of the presidential election there. Another interesting fact is that Buhari, even in the days of PDP heavy rigging machines, has always performed well in this region especially in Adamawa, Gombe, Bauchi, Yobe and Bornu. In 2007 and 2011, despite losing the general election, PMB did well in this zone and even outperformed Atiku here in 2007 when both ran against Yar’Adua of PDP (PMB ran on ANPP then and Atiku on AC).

Also, this zone was ravaged by Boko Haram pre-2015 election when the terrorist group was controlling 14 local governments at some point. Today, despite still battling the BHT in the region, it’s surely a far better situation there and only those who were liberated will understand.
It was in Gombe that PDP flagged off their NE Presidential Election Campaign and was embarrassed by the chorus of Sai Buhari to their shout of “Nijeria”. The video is available online for anyone to watch. PMB’s wife is from Adamawa, same with Ribadu. I do not see Atiku winning his own state of Adamawa but I give him a slight edge in Taraba which PDP won in 2015.

Verdict: Buhari/APC to win the zone by at least 60% of the votes cast here. I think this is more than generous to Atiku/PDP.

North West Zone
This is a very straight-forward prediction to make, except anyone wants to deceive himself/herself. PMB is from Katsina and his second home is Kaduna where he has a house. Buhari, even in the days of PDP writing results, has always done very well in Kano, Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara, Jigawa and even Kebbi. And it will take a major political catastrophe for PDP to change this trend in 2019.

Honestly, it’s out of curiosity to see the possibility of Atiku winning the election I gave APC/PMB only 65% win percentage here, otherwise there is no any major political development to warrant such generosity. Look at the win % of PMB in NW in 2015 and you’ll see the average of almost 84%. Agreed Atiku is also from the north but he has no political clout of PMB there. In fact, if PMB withdraws from the race and raises any other person’s hands to be president, that person will defeat Atiku in the NE and NW. Such is his cult-like following in those two regions. Call it whatever you like, it’s not a problem but expect PMB/APC to coast home to a landslide in the NW.

Verdict is APC to score at least 65% in this region.

South East Zone
This is the zone of the VP candidate of PDP, Peter Obi. It has always been a stronghold of PDP for some inexplainable reasons and we should not expect this to change in 2019 presidential election. The only thing that has changed this time around is the lukewarm attitude of the SE governors toward Atiku’s presidency. We also have an interesting situation in Ebonyi and Anambra where the governors openly identify with PMB rather than Atiku. Imo has a sitting APC governor in Okorocha but I do not think this will count for much. The win percentage for PDP in 2015 in this zone was 93% average but I do not see such repeating itself with INEC’s resolve not to allow the use of incident form which was largely used in the SE and SS zones in 2015. Another possibility that could work against PDP in the SE is IPOB’s stance on the election. Should Nnamdi Kanu insist that his followers should stay at home on the election day, expect Atiku’s votes to be seriously diminished here.

Notwithstanding, I have awarded 67% of the votes to PDP in the SE region with APC’s best showing predicted to happen in Ebonyi, Abia and Anambra at 30%. Feel free to dispute this prediction and I won’t have much issue with it.

South South Zone
This is a zone which many APC supporters and neutral political watchers believe APC has made a big in-road into, to the extent that many are predicting a win for PMB in Akwa-Ibom and a very good showing in Rivers and Delta. I personally see PMB winning Edo; reason being that it’s the home state of APC’s Chairman; APC won there in 2016 governorship election (a recession time); and APC did very well there in 2015 election despite intimidation by the military of PDP then.

Because of political alignment which saw Akpabio decamp to APC with his huge followership, APC can actually win Akwa Ibom but I have tempered my expectation with caution by predicting only 40% of the votes there for APC. With Akpabio in Akwa Ibom, Great Ogboru and Ayiri Emami in Delta, Rotimi Amechi, Tonye Cole and Nsima Ekere and other political heavy weigths on the side of APC in Akwa Ibom, it’s only logical to expect APC score nothing less than 30% of the votes in this region; especially with almost zero chance of “writing result under special condition” in 2019.

Verdict – PDP to win the zone with no more than 65% of the total votes cast here.

South West Zone
Face the fact, if there is any region in Nigeria which doesn’t largely vote based on religion and ethnicity, it is the SW zone of the country. If this wasn’t true, GEJ/PDP would not have gotten 43% of the votes there with just about 587,000 vote difference in 2015, despite APC having Osinbajo on the ticket. But with major infrastructural projects (road, rail, power project) and N-Power plus Trader/Market Moni going on in the SW region; coupled with the facts that there is no shortage of political heavyweights from the region in APC; plus the facts that the region’s Obas largely support PMB’s 2nd term, PDP will have performed well to match their 2015 outing in SW. VP Osinbajo is from the zone (Ogun state) and APC recently won in Ekiti and Osun as well. Irrespective of what anyone might think, it’s highly unthinkable for SW to abandon Osinbajo for a promise of SGF position in a PDP government. Forget that Obasanjo and Afenifere are supporting Atiku, these elements are only revered outside the SW.

It’s important to point out that the performance of PDP in Osun was not really taken into consideration for the fact that electorate in that election, electorate wanted to punish APC/Aregbesola for not paying workers salaries for many months (same we saw in Ekiti as well). I personally know people who are APC but voted for Adeleke because of the salary issue. So, I do not see PDP doing as well as they did in that governorship election of 2018. Notwithstanding, I have largely left the prediction to about the same outcome of 2015 with just a flip of Ekiti to APC since the party won the governorship election there as recent as three months ago.

Verdict – APC wins SW by about 60% of total votes cast.

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